Te Rautaki Rūreti Martingale
Ka whakarearuatia e te rautaki rūreti Martingale te peti i muri i ia hinga, ā, ka hoki ki te peti tīmatanga i muri i te toa. Ka whakahoki ia toa i ngā ngaronga katoa o mua me tētahi wae tīmatanga kotahi. Ka whakaatu te whārangi i raro nei i te pānga o tēnā ki tētahi pūtea tākaro, me te take e kore ai e taea e ia te whakarerekē i te ngaronga tūmanako.
Me pēhea te mahi a te pūnaha rūreti Martingale?
Hinga, ka whakarearua. Toa, ka hoki ki te peti tīmatanga. Koinā te pūnaha katoa. Mā te peti tīmatanga $10 me te tepe tēpu $500, ka pau te raupapa i muri i ngā hinga e ono. Ko te tīwae whakamutunga te tūponotanga kia tae ki taua hīkoi i tētahi peti utu ōrite, he 19/37 te tūponotanga o ia hinga.
Peti tīmatanga $10, tepe tēpu $500. I muri i ngā hinga e ono, ko te peti e whai ake he $640, kei runga ake i te tepe: ka whati te kauneke, ā, kua ngaro te $630. Ko te tūpono o ngā hinga raupapa e ono ki te whero he (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, tata ki te kotahi i ia 55 whakamātau.
Hīkoitia te pūnaha
Ka whakaruatia e te hinga te moni peti. Ka hoki te toa ki te tīmatanga.
Ko ngā moni peti me ngā hua he wae o te peti taketake.
He pēhea te āhua o tētahi wā tākaro?
He hīkoi iti whakarunga, kātahi he kuaha mahanga. I te Martingale rūreti, ka tāpiri ia raupapa whakarearua kua oti i tētahi peti tīmatanga kotahi, nō reira ka piki pūmau te rārangi. Ko te raupapa ka tūtaki ki te tepe $500, ka whakahoki i te $630 i te wā kotahi: 63 o aua hīkoi.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- tau waenga −$1,000
- p75 +$930
- p90 +$1,830
Taputapu whaihanga
Ka whakahaere ia tautuhinga i ngā wā tākaro 2,000 o ngā peti utu ōrite mai i tētahi pūtea tākaro $1,000. Ka whakahouhia tonutia ngā hua.
Ko te nuinga o ngā wā tākaro ka mutu he iti noa te huamoni (40.8%), koinā te kukume. He tōraro te toharite (−$66.44) nā te nui o ngā wā tākaro hinga: i tae te kauneke ki te tepe tēpu i 59.3% o ngā wā tākaro. Ko te kaipeti papatahi $10 i aua hurihanga anō, e tūmanakohia ana ka ngaro tata ki te $27.
Kia hia te auau o te raupapa hinga
Ka hinga te peti utu ōrite i te wīra kore kotahi i ngā hurihanga 19 o ia 37. Ko ia rārangi te tūpono ka hinga katoa tētahi raupapa hurihanga, me te nui kua ngaro i taua wā i te kaitākaro Martingale, e whakarua ana i muri i ia hinga.
| ngā hinga raupapa | tūpono | tata ki te 1 i ia | kua ngaro tae noa ki nāianei | peti e whai ake ana |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Ko te tūpono, ko te 19/37 kua whakareatia ki a ia anō kotahi te wā mō ia hinga, ka tatauria mai i tētahi hurihanga kua tohua. He maha ngā hurihanga i te wā tākaro roa e tīmata ai pea taua raupapa, nō reira i te pō katoa he nui ake rawa tōna tūpono i tā te rārangi kotahi e whakaatu ana.
Ko te raupapa o ngā hinga tekau mā rima ka puta tata ki te kotahi i ia 22,000 whakamātau. Ko te āhua nei he haumaru. Ehara, mō ngā take e rua. Ka tīmata ia hurihanga i tētahi whakamātau hou, ā, he rau ngā hurihanga i te ahiahi kotahi. Ā, kāore tētahi e tae ki te tekau mā rima: mai i te peti tīmatanga $10, ka whakamutua e te tepe $500 te whakarearua i muri i ngā hinga e ono, ka puta tata ki te kotahi i ia 55 whakamātau.
He aha e kore ai e taea e ia te whakarerekē i ngā tūpono?
Ka tāpiri ngā uara tūmanako. Mēnā ko te tūmanako o ia peti takitahi he −2.70% o tōna moni peti, nā ko te tūmanako o ia raupapa peti, ahakoa te āhua o te kōwhiri i ngā moni peti, he −2.70% o te tapeke kua petihia. Ka taea e te kōwhiri moni peti te whakawhirinaki ki ngā hua o mua; e kore e taea te whakawhirinaki ki te hua e whai ake ana.
ka kōwhiria te bᵢ i mua i te hurihanga i; Xᵢ = ±1 he motuhake i te bᵢ
Ngā pōhēhē noa
He katakata iti
He maha ngā toa iti, kotahi te ngaronga nui onge. Ā, māu anō e utu te kerēme.
