Peti Whero, Pango rānei i te Rūreti
I te rūreti, ko te whero, ko te pango rānei ka kapi i ngā tau tekau mā waru o te tae kotahi: te peti utu ōrite hei tauira matua.
Tekau mā waru ngā tau, ka utua 1:1. Tūponotanga 48.65%, ehara i te 50%: ko te kore te rerekētanga.
Te wāhi tuku
Ko ngā pouaka taimana wheropetiWheroHe peti utu ōrite ki ngā tau whero e 18. Wīwī: rouge.Pānuitia katoatia → me te taimana pangopetiPangoHe peti utu ōrite ki ngā tau pango e 18. Wīwī: noir.Pānuitia katoatia → i waenga i ngā peti o wahopetiPeti o wahoHe peti ki ngā pouaka e karapoti ana i te tukutuku: ngā tatini, ngā tīwae me ngā peti utu ōrite.Pānuitia katoatia →, ko ngā kupu rouge me noir rānei i te mahere petitaputapuMahere petiTe tukutuku peti kua tāia ki te tēpu. Arā anō: tēpu, kākahu tēpu, felt.Pānuitia katoatia → Wīwī. Me tutuki i ia pouaka te tepe iti o te tēpu. Ngā tau whero: 1 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 18 19 21 23 25 27 30 32 34 36. Pango: ērā atu tekau mā waru. He kākāriki te korewīraKoreTe kōhao kākāriki kotahi kāore e kapia e tētahi peti utu ōrite, tatini, tīwae rānei; te pūtake o te painga o te whare. Arā anō: kore kotahi, 0.Pānuitia katoatia →, ā, kāore i te uru ki tētahi.
Te utunga me te tūpono ki te toa i te rūreti i te whero, i te pango rānei
Ko te tūpono tōkeke ki te 18 i roto i te 37 he 1.056 ki te 1; ka utua e te tēpu he 1. Ka toa te peti rūreti $10 ki te whero, ka hoki mai he $10. I ngā hurihanga toharite e 37: 18 ngā toa (+$180), 18 ngā hinga (−$180), kotahi te kore (−$10). Ko te tapeke −$10 i runga i te $370.
Ngā raupapa
Ka whakawhitiwhiti te whero me te pango i te wīra, engari kāore i te wā. Ko te tūponotangapāngarauTūponotangaTe tūpono o tētahi putanga, mai i te 0 ki te 1, mai i te 0% ki te 100% rānei. Tau kotahi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Pānuitia katoatia → o ngā whero tekau i te raupapa kotahi he (18/37)¹⁰ = 0.074%, kotahi pea i ia 1,350 matapihi hurihanga tekau; i tētahi whare petipeti e rua tekau ōna tēpu e huri ana 50 hurihanga i te hāora, ka puta ki tētahi wāhi i te nuinga o ngā rā. Kāore tētahi o ēnei e kōrero ana mō te hurihanga tekau mā tahi, he 18/37 tōna whero pērā i ia hurihanga i mua i a ia.
He aha i noho ai ngā pūnaha ki konei
Ko te whero/pango te mea e tata rawa ana ki te maka moni i te tēpu, nā reira koia te tūāpapa māori mō ngā kaunekerautakiKaunekeIa ture e huri ana i te moni peti i runga i ngā hua o mua. Ka whakapiki ngā kauneke whakarunga i te hinga i muri i ngā hinga, ko ngā kauneke whakarunga i te toa i muri i ngā toa.Pānuitia katoatia →: ko MartingalerautakiMartingaleHe kauneke e whakarua ana i te peti i muri i ia hinga. Tirohia te wāhanga Rautaki mō ōna mahi me ngā mea kāore e mahia e ia.Pānuitia katoatia →, ko D’Alembert, ko FibonaccirautakiFibonacciHe kauneke e whai ana i te raupapa 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: kotahi te hīkoi whakamua i muri i te hinga, e rua ngā hīkoi whakamuri i muri i te toa.Pānuitia katoatia →, ko LabouchèrerautakiLabouchèreHe pūnaha whakakore: tuhia he rārangi tau, petihia te tapeke o ngā pito e rua, whakakorea i muri i te toa, tāpiritia te moni peti kua ngaro i muri i te hinga.Pānuitia katoatia → me ParolirautakiParoliHe kauneke whakarunga i te toa: whakaruatia i muri i te toa, tīmata anō i muri i te hinga, i muri rānei i ngā toa e toru i te raupapa kotahi. Arā anō: Martingale kōaro.Pānuitia katoatia →, ka whakaaro katoa he peti utu ōritepetiPeti utu ōriteWhero/pango, kehe/taurite, teitei/hakahaka. 18 ngā tau, ko te utunga 1:1.Pānuitia katoatia →. He ngaronga tūmanakopāngarauNgaronga tūmanakoTe uara tūmanako whakareatia ki te tapeke o te moni kua petihia; te moni toharite ka ngaro i roto i te wā tākaro, i tētahi wā rānei.Pānuitia katoatia → tō ia mea o te 2.70% o te tapeke petimoniTapeke petiTe tapeke o te moni kua petihia i roto i te wā tākaro, i tētahi wā rānei, tae atu ki ngā moni toa kua petihia anō. Arā anō: handle, action.Pānuitia katoatia → katoa i tēnei peti, 1.35% i te tēpu la partagetureLa partageHe ture Wīwī: ina puta te kore, ka whakahokia te haurua o te moni peti utu ōrite. Ka haurua te painga o te whare i aua peti ki te 1.35%.Pānuitia katoatia →. Ka whakaatu ngā whārangi rautaki i te pānga o ia mea ki te āhua o te wā tākaro.
- p10 −$420
- p25 −$280
- tau waenga −$140
- p75 +$20
- p90 +$140
Ngā ture Wīwī
Mā te la partage, mā te en prisontureEn prisonHe ture Wīwī: ina puta te kore, ka puritia te peti utu ōrite mō te hurihanga e whai ake ana, kāore e ngaro. Ka haurua te painga o te whare i aua peti.Pānuitia katoatia → rānei ka haurua te painga o tēnei peti ki te 1.35%. Koia te kōrero whai hua rawa i tēnei whārangi: ki te peti koe ki te whero, kimihia he tēpu Wīwī.
Te raupapa o 1913
I te 18 o Here-turi-kōkā 1913 i Monte Carlo, i puta te pango 26 ngā wā i te raupapa kotahi. I kōpipiri ngā kaitākaro ki te tēpu mai i te pango tekau mā rima pea, ka peti ki te whero nō te mea “kua tae te wā”, ā, i ngaro he miriona wāra. Ko te tūponotanga o ngā pango 26 he (18/37)²⁶, kotahi pea i roto i te 137 miriona; ko te tūponotanga ka kite tētahi, ki tētahi wāhi, i te mutunga, he kotahi.
Ngā pātai
Kāo. 18 ia mea.
Ko te whero, he iti noa te rerekē, i te nuinga o ngā rangahau kua tāia mō ngā mahi i te tēpu. Kāore he mea e rerekē.
Āe, mārika. I te mahere peti ka kitea kua marara nō te mea kei te raupapa tatau te mahere peti.
He katakata iti
Kāore he mahara o te wīra. He nui rawa tō ngā kaitākaro.
Ngā Puna
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Schwartz, D. G. Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling.