Rapanga: E Rua ngā Tatini me te Maramara Kotahi
Ka hipoki ngā tatini e rua i ngā tau 24. Tāpirihia he maramara ki te kore, ā, ka hipokina e koe ngā tau 25. Ka whai hua rānei te inihua?

Kāo. He −2.70% ia wāhanga o tōna moni peti, nō reira he −2.70% te huinga o te tapeke. Ka mahi te rapanga i te take, ka tātai i te tohatoha tika, ā, ka whakaatu i te mea ka rerekē (te āhua) me te mea kāore (te utu).
Te rapanga
Ka petihia e koe te $10 ki te tatinipetiTatini1–12, 13–24, 25–36 rānei, ko te utunga 2:1.Pānuitia katoatia → tuatahi, te $10 ki te tatini tuarua, me te $1 ki te korewīraKoreTe kōhao kākāriki kotahi kāore e kapia e tētahi peti utu ōrite, tatini, tīwae rānei; te pūtake o te painga o te whare. Arā anō: kore kotahi, 0.Pānuitia katoatia →. (a) He aha ngā putanga ka taea me ō rātou tūponotanga? (b) He aha te uara tūmanakopāngarauUara tūmanakoTe hua toharite mō ia peti i te wā roa. −1/37 o te moni peti mō ia peti Ūropi paerewa.Pānuitia katoatia →? (c) Ka pai ake rānei te peti i te maramaramoniMaramaraHe tohu e tohu ana i tētahi moni pūmau, ka whakatakotoria ki te mahere peti hei peti. Arā anō: check.Pānuitia katoatia → kore?
Otinga (a) me (b)
Ngā putanga: te pōrotaputapuPōroTe pōro iti ka panga ki te ara, ki te ahunga kōaro ki te rōta. Ko ngā pōro o nāianei he ivorine, he Teflon rānei, 18–21 mm.Pānuitia katoatia → i te 1–24 (kōhaotaputapuKōhaoTētahi o ngā wehenga e 37 kua tauia i te rōta. Arā anō: slot, cup.Pānuitia katoatia → 24): ka utu tētahi tatini i te $20, ka hinga te tatini atu i te $10, ka hinga te kore i te $1: huamoni +$9. Te pōro i te 25–36 (kōhao 12): ka hinga ngā tatini e rua, ka hinga te kore: −$21. Te pōro i te kore (kōhao 1): ka hinga ngā tatini i te $20, ka utu te kore i te $35: +$15. EV = (24 × 9 + 1 × 15 − 12 × 21)/37 = (216 + 15 − 252)/37 = −21/37 ≈ −$0.57 mō ia hurihanga i te $21 kua petihia: 2.70%.
Otinga (c)
Ki te kore te maramara kore: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = (240 − 260)/37 = −20/37 ≈ −$0.54 i te $20 kua petihia, he 2.70% anō. Kua hurihia e te maramara kore te putanga kore −$20 ki te +$15 (he whakapaitanga $35 kotahi i te 37, ko tōna wāriu $0.95 mō ia hurihanga), ā, ko tōna utu he $1 i ērā atu hurihanga 36 (ko tōna wāriu $0.97 mō ia hurihanga). Te panoni huamoni: −$0.03 mō ia hurihanga, arā, ko te 2.70% o te tāra tāpiri. He ōrite tonu te utu o te inihua ki ērā atu mea katoa.
He aha i whānui ai tēnei
Ka tāpiri ngā uara tūmanako. Ko te EV o tētahi huinga peti i te wā kotahi he ōrite ki te tapeke o ngā EV o ngā wāhanga, ā, ko ia mea he −1/37 o tōna moni peti. Nō reira ko ia huinga he −1/37 o te moni peti katoa. Kāore he whakaritenga maramara i te mahere petitaputapuMahere petiTe tukutuku peti kua tāia ki te tēpu. Arā anō: tēpu, kākahu tēpu, felt.Pānuitia katoatia →, ahakoa te maha, e mawhiti ai i tēnei; ka whakaū te taputapu Kaihanga Peti mō ia huinga ka taea e koe te tuku. Ko te mea ka rerekē i ngā huinga ko te tohatoha: te auau o tō toa, te nui, me te kino o te mea kino rawa.
He whai muri uaua ake
Kimihia he huinga peti paerewa e hipoki ana i ngā tau katoa 37. Ngā tatini e toru ($10 ia mea) me te $1 ki te kore: ko ia tau o te 1–36 he huamoni −$1 (ka utu tētahi tatini i te $20, ka hinga ērā atu e rua i te $20, ka hinga te kore i te $1), ā, ko te kore he huamoni +$35 − $30 = +$5. EV = (36 × (−1) + 5)/37 = −31/37 i te $31 kua petihia: 2.70%. Ka taea e koe te whakatūturu kia kore rawa koe e ohorere, ā, ka utu tonu koe i te utu ōrite mō taua painga.
Tātai
Ngā pātai
Kāo, i te tēpu Ūropi. I te tēpu Wīwī, ko ngā peti utu ōritepetiPeti utu ōriteWhero/pango, kehe/taurite, teitei/hakahaka. 18 ngā tau, ko te utunga 1:1.Pānuitia katoatia → anake he 1.35%; ki te tāpirihia he mea kē atu, ka piki te painga kōmuitanga.
Ka ngaro te $1 mō ia $1 i te kore anake, kāore he toa i ētahi atu wā. EV −2.70% kāore he painga: te huinga kotahi anake kāore rawa he take.
Kia kōwhiri ai i tētahi āhua wā tākaro e pārekareka ana koe. He take tika tēnā, ā, ko te take anake.
He katakata iti

Ko te utu o te inihua i te tēpu rūreti he ōrite tonu ki tāna e penapena ai.
Ngā Puna
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.