Rahinga Tauira
E hia ngā hurihanga e hiahiatia ana i mua i te whai tikanga o tētahi tauira.
Kia kitea mārika tētahi kōhao e puta ana 1 i ia 30, kaua ko te 1 i ia 37, tata ki te 4,400 ngā hurihanga e hiahiatia ana. Mō tētahi kōhao 1 i ia 35, arā, te momo ka whai hua pono, tata ki te 70,000.
He aha i maha ai
He iti te tohu, arā, he paku taunga tāpiri i ia mano hurihanga, ki te taha o te haruru huarua o √(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Ka heke te haruru pērā i te 1/√n, nō reira ki te haurua i te rangirua, e whā ngā wā te nui ake o ngā hurihanga. Ka puta i tētahi kōhaotaputapuKōhaoTētahi o ngā wehenga e 37 kua tauia i te rōta. Arā anō: slot, cup.Pānuitia katoatia → i te 1/30 ngā taunga 33 i ia mano, ki te taha o ngā taunga 27 e tūmanakohia ana: e ono ngā taunga tāpiri, me te hipanga paerewapāngarauHipanga paerewaTe pūtake rua o te tītaringa; te tawhiti noa o te hua i te uara tūmanako.Pānuitia katoatia → tata ki te rima. Kāore e taea e tētahi tauira kotahi o te mano te wehewehe pono i ēnei.
Te tātai
Mō tētahi whakamātautau taha kotahi o te kōhao kotahi i te taumata 5% me te kaha 80%, ko te n e hiahiatia ana he āhua ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², ko p₀ = 1/37, ko p₁ te auau e whakapaetia ana. E tika ana tēnei mō tētahi kōhao kotahi i kōwhiria i mua. Mēnā e tirotiro ana koe i ngā kōhao katoa e 37 kia kitea te mea wera rawa, whakareatia ki te āhua o te rua ki te toru kia pono tonu te auau o ngā hua teka.
Te pānui ā-mahi
Ko tētahi tau werapakiwaitaraTau weraHe tau kua nui ake te puta i tērā i tūmanakohia i nā tata nei. I te wīra tōkeke, kāore he matapae.Pānuitia katoatia → i muri i ngā hurihanga 300 he haruru matapōkere. I muri i te 3,000 he take tēnā kia kohia anō ētahi atu 3,000 i taua wīra anō. I muri i te 30,000 tērā pea he wīra e tika ana kia inea ā-tinana. Ko ia whakamahinga tītaha kua tuhia i roto i te hītori i hangaia ki runga i ngā tekau mano hurihanga kua tuhia, ā, he marama te roa o ia mahi.
Te utu o ngā raraunga
I ngā hurihanga 50 i te hāora, ko ngā hurihanga 10,000 he 200 hāora o te tuhi, he maha wiki rānei o te tārua i ngā hītori kua whakaputaina, mai i tētahi upoko wīrataputapuUpoko wīraHe kupu ōrite ki te rōta: te wāhanga e huri ana, e mau ana i ngā tau.Pānuitia katoatia → kotahi kua mōhiotia, kāore i nekehia, kāore anō i whakahoutia ōna pakitara e te whare petipeti i taua wā. Koinei, ehara ko te tatauranga, te take kua mate te tākaro tītaha: he poto ake te huringa tiaki i te huringa kohi raraunga.
Te rahinga tauira mō te painga ake
Ko taua tātai anō e kī ana i te roa e kite ai te kaitākaro i te painga o te wharepāngarauPainga o te whareTe wāhanga o ia moni peti ka puritia e te whare petipeti i te toharite: 2.70% i te rūreti Ūropi.Pānuitia katoatia → i ōna ake hua: tata ki te 1,400 hurihanga peti utu ōrite mō te sigma kotahi, 10,000 kia kore e pōhēhētia te painga. Ko te tangata e kī ana e whai hua ana tētahi pūnaha i ngā hurihanga iti iho i tēnā, he haruru matapōkere tāna e kōrero ana.
Tātai
Ngā pātai
He āwhina te whakamātautau i ngā wāhangawīraWāhangaHe pewa kōhao honohono i te wīra, he rerekē i tētahi rōpū i te mahere peti.Pānuitia katoatia → kaua ko ngā kōhao, nā te mea ko te hapa ā-tinana ka pā ki tētahi pewa, ā, ka tāpiri te tohu puta noa i ngā kōhao. Kāore e huri i te taumata o te rahi.
Āe, mēnā he ōrite te upoko wīra, ā, kāore anō kia tiakina. Koinā te wāhanga uaua ki te mōhio.
He tikanga noa. Ko te tikanga, ka kitea tētahi tītaha pono o te rahi kua kīia e whā i ia rima.
He katakata iti
Ka heke te haruru pērā i te 1/√n. Ka tere ake te heke o te manawanui.
Ngā Puna
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.