Ngā Pakiwaitara · Ngā Pakiwaitara · 6 meneti

Pakiwaitara: Kua Tae te Wā o Ētahi Tau

“Kāore anō te tekau mā whitu kia puta i ngā hurihanga 150. Kua tae tōna wā.” Kāore.

Whakautu poto

Ko te tau kāore anō kia puta mō te wā roa, he ōrite tonu tōna tūpono i te hurihanga e whai ake ana ki ērā atu: 1/37. Ko te whakapono “kua tae tōna wā”, ko te pōhēhē a te kaipetipeti me tētahi papa hua kua tāpirihia.

p(17 e whai ake ana)
1/37, i ngā wā katoa
p(kāore he 17 i ngā hurihanga 150)
1.7%
te auau o tērā i tētahi wāhi
i ngā wā katoa
whakatau
pakiwaitara

Te kerēme

Ka whakaaturia e ngā whare petipeti ngā hua whakamutunga 20 ki te 500, ā, he maha ngā wā ka tohua ngā tau “makariri” kāore anō kia pā mō tētahi wā. Ka pānui ngā kaitākaro i te papa, ka kite kua ngaro te 17 mō ngā hurihanga 150, ā, ka petihia nā te mea me tae tōna wā. Ko te whakaaro, i te wā roa ka pā ia tau i te 1/37 o te wā, nā reira ko te tau kei muri, me whai kia mau.

He aha e hē ai

He motuhake ngā hurihanga. Kāore te pōrotaputapuPōroTe pōro iti ka panga ki te ara, ki te ahunga kōaro ki te rōta. Ko ngā pōro o nāianei he ivorine, he Teflon rānei, 18–21 mm.Pānuitia katoatia → e mōhio kua ngaro te 17, ā, he ōrite tonu te rahi o te kōhaotaputapuKōhaoTētahi o ngā wehenga e 37 kua tauia i te rōta. Arā anō: slot, cup.Pānuitia katoatia →. Ka tata haere te ōwehenga o te wā roa mā te whakawairanu, ehara mā te whakatika: i muri i ētahi atu hurihanga 10,000, ko te āputa 150 hurihanga he hapa whakaawhiwhi noa, ehara nā te mea i pā auau ake te 17, engari nā te mea i tupu te tauira. Kāore te ture o ngā tau nuipāngarauTure o ngā tau nuiKa tata atu te toharite o ngā hua motuhake ki te uara tūmanako i te tipu o te maha o ngā whakamātautau.Pānuitia katoatia → e tono kia whai tētahi tau kia mau; ko tāna anake e tono ana, kia iti haere ngā piupiu o mua ki te taha o te tapeke.

Te auau o te ngaro o tētahi tau mō ngā hurihanga k, neke atu rānei%
37 hurihanga
36.3%
74 hurihanga
13.2%
100 hurihanga
6.5%
150 hurihanga
1.7%
200 hurihanga
0.4%
%
018.1536.3%
(36/37)ᵏ. E 37 ngā tau i ia wīra i ia whare petipeti, nā reira kei te puta tētahi ngaronga 150 hurihanga i tētahi wāhi i tēnei wā tonu.

He aha e rite ai ki te tika

Nā te mea i ngā wāhanga katoa o te ao, ka matapae te ngaro i te taenga mai: ko te pahi kāore anō kia tae mai mō ngā meneti e rua tekau, he nui ake te tūpono ka tae mai i ngā meneti e rima e whai ake ana. Nā te mea he wātaka tō ngā pahi. Kāore he wātaka o te rūreti; he tūponotangapāngarauTūponotangaTe tūpono o tētahi putanga, mai i te 0 ki te 1, mai i te 0% ki te 100% rānei. Tau kotahi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Pānuitia katoatia → kē tōna, ā, ehara te tūponotanga i te motunga. He tika te whakaaro ā-ngākau mō te nuinga o te ao, ā, he hē mō te wīra.

Te whakamātautau

Tuhia kotahi rau ngā tau “makariri” mai i ngā papa hua, ā, petihia ia mea mō ngā hurihanga 37 e whai ake ana. Ko te auau pānga, he 1/37 ia hurihanga, he ōrite ki tō tētahi tau i kōwhiria matapōkere, me te haruru matapōkere. Ko te papa hua he whakaahuatanga o mua. Kāore he mea matapae mō tētahi wīra tōkeke, ā, i tētahi wīra tītahataiwhangaWīra tītahaHe wīra e nui ake ai te tūponotanga o ētahi kōhao i te 1/37 nā ōna hē ā-tinana. He onge, ka kitea anake i ngā mano hurihanga kua tuhia.Pānuitia katoatia → (me mano ngā hurihanga kia whakaū ai) ko ngā tau werapakiwaitaraTau weraHe tau kua nui ake te puta i tērā i tūmanakohia i nā tata nei. I te wīra tōkeke, kāore he matapae.Pānuitia katoatia →, kaua ko ngā mea makariri, ngā mea hei peti.

Rahinga TauiraNgā Hua Rūreti: Te Pānui i te Papa

Te pakiwaitara kōaro

Ko te “He wera te tekau mā whitu, petihia” te hapa ōrite kua hurihia te tohu. He ōrite te uara tūmanakopāngarauUara tūmanakoTe hua toharite mō ia peti i te wā roa. −1/37 o te moni peti mō ia peti Ūropi paerewa.Pānuitia katoatia → o ngā whakapono e rua ki te kati i ō karu me te tohu: −2.70% o te moni peti. I te Kēmu Whakamātau, whakahaerehia te hītori, ā, tatauria te auau o te pā o tētahi tau makariripakiwaitaraTau makaririHe tau kāore anō kia puta mō ngā hurihanga maha. Kāore he mōhiotanga mō ngā hurihanga kei mua i te wīra tōkeke.Pānuitia katoatia → i ngā hurihanga 37 e whai ake ana; ko te whakautu tata ki te 63.7%, he ōrite tonu ki tētahi atu tau.

Ngā pātai

Ka whakaatu te whare petipeti i ngā tau makariri hei tinihanga i ngā kaitākaro?

Ka whakaaturia nā te mea ka tono ngā kaitākaro. He tika te papa, ā, kāore he painga.

Ka pēhea tētahi tau kāore anō kia pā i ngā hurihanga 500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: he onge, ā, he 1/37 tonu i te hurihanga e whai ake ana. Mēnā ka puta tonu i tētahi wīra kotahi, he pātai tītaha tērā, ā, ko te whakautu, ko te karo i taua tau.

Ka tae rānei te wā o tētahi tau?

Kāo.

He katakata iti

Ehara te tūponotanga i te motunga.

Ehara te tūponotanga i te motunga.

Ngā Puna

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, putanga 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, upoko XIV.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Upoko 13, rūreti.
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